April was another interesting month, with gains across almost all global stock markets led by the United States, but closely followed by the U.K. and Europe. Whilst the former two were significantly aided by continued COVID-19 vaccine progress and associated national reopening, Europe has started to make some progress too.
Sixty years ago, Marshall Nirenberg and Henrich Matthaei began the process of cracking the genetic code. Thanks to their persistence and resilience, today’s scientists developed effective mRNA-based vaccines in record time – saving millions of lives from COVID-19. With the darkest days of the pandemic behind us, investors can also appreciate the resilience of the economy and financial markets and the hopeful prospect of brighter days ahead.
It is less than a year since Rishi Sunak presented his first Budget, after having been in the role of Chancellor for less than a month. His despatch box première featured an allocation of £12bn towards mitigating the impact of the Covid-19. Ironically, on the same day as Mr Sunak revealed that boost to spending, the World Health Organisation declared the outbreak a pandemic. Total expenditure in the U.K. on dealing with the pandemic is now estimated to be around £300bn.
From a northern hemisphere perspective, Spring 2021 formally begins on Saturday 20 March however – for both recent weather and economic watchers – February showed some real progress that boosted signs of optimism for the rest of the year.
The first month of a new year ended as a disappointment for the average U.K. investor, especially as a contrast to the widespread excitable returns seen in the last two months of 2020. However, the month of January alone rarely gives us every answer and the unique nature of both the U.K. market alone and collectively the entire world has a wide range of potential outcomes.
We wish you a safe, healthy, and prosperous New Year! These words are even more meaningful given the most deadly and economically crippling ‘Black Swan’ event that we have experienced in the last century—COVID-19. After unprecedented fiscal and monetary stimulus, the record-setting development of multiple effective vaccines has elevated optimism that we will experience the ‘thrill of victory’ over this nemesis in the upcoming year.
The curtain is slowly coming down on 2020. Not before time! After what has been a tumultuous period for most, and a tragedy for many, the time to turn the page and move on is slowly arriving. Centre stage, the principal actors are going through their closing lines. Following the US elections, the leading actor refuses to go quietly into the night. Legal actions lie strewn about like discarded party poppers…
After a rough, tough performance month in the pan-European equity markets, the instinct is always to look away from the detailed data and conclude in a world of tightening pandemic restrictions and an imminent (and hotly contested) American presidential election, that uncertainty must induce investment caution.
The traditional early September think piece centres on the natural reset that a generalised return to work (and for the younger generation, school) brings after the typically languid summer holiday period. As 2020 is clearly a very different style of year, let us rip up the normal script and ask the simpler question of ‘does the world feel lucky?’
Financial markets are always a three-dimensional jigsaw, with new pieces being added and deleted at whim every business day. But the signals from the last month have been especially difficult to discern. In contrast to the bounce back second quarter, July was a negative month for pan-European markets with the U.K. continuing to lag.